It’s the game we all had circled immediately after the 2021 schedule was released.
Bills vs. Chiefs.
Week 5.
Sunday Night Football.
The AFC Championship rematch.
As you’d expect, players and coaches alike downplaying the magnitude of the matchup all week, calling it just another game.
To some extent they’re right.
But they’re also wrong.
While a Bills win won’t dethrone Kansas City as the kings of the conference, it will show they at least can when that time comes.
A loss doesn’t take that away either, but will push the Bills to 0-3 against Patrick Mahomes and Co. over the past 12 months.
There is SO much to dig into, so let’s dive right into things!
It’s time for Bills O to go
We expected a shootout both times the Bills and Chiefs squared-off last season.
It never happened.
KC outscored Buffalo 64-41, scoring 8 touchdowns in two games to 4 by the Bills.
Josh Allen’s resume for MVP runner-up was not highlighted by his performance in those two defeats, completing 50.7% of his passes for 409 yards, 4 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. His 122 passing yards in the regular season meeting are the second lowest of his career he’s thrown in a game he started and finished.
But this Chiefs defense has been bad to open the season, so the time is now for the Bills offense to do what they do.
The #Chiefs offense can be explosive.
So can the #Bills.
“I’m not too big on the narrative in terms of we’ve got to go out and do more. We just got to do what we do and I feel like if we do that then we’ll go out and be able to win this game.” pic.twitter.com/9ikXPAbsad
— Jon Scott (@JonScottTV) October 7, 2021
KC is allowing 31.3 points per game on 437.8 yards per game, both ranking second most in the NFL. Opponents are averaging 291.8 passing yards per game (27th) and 146 rushing yards per game (30th).
They rank just about at the bottom in yards allowed per play, both passing and rushing as well.
The Chiefs secondary has a bit of a different look at cornerback. Charvarius Ward is the only one who played in both games a year ago, allowing three catches on five targets his way in the regular season game and then seven catches on 10 targets in the AFC Championship game (According to Pro Football Reference). L’Jarius Sneed only saw action in the AFC title game, allowing four catches on six targets his way. Former 1st round pick Mike Hughes was acquired this offseason from Minnesota. He’s allowed 16 receptions on 24 targets this season and three TDs.
Of course the holdovers are ones to keep an eye on, with Tyrann Mathieu one of the best safeties in the NFL, paired with Daniel Sorenson.
I think this is a group Allen can take advantage of just like Baker Mayfield (21/28 for 321 yards and INT), Justin Herbert (26/38 for 281 yards and 4 TDs), and Jalen Hurts (32/48 for 387 yards and 2 TDs) have early this season.
Allen Under Pressure
One part of Allen’s issues against KC last season was the amount of pressure he felt from their defense.
He was blitzed 32 times, pressured 24, hit 11, hurried 9, and sacked 4 times in two games (all 4 sacks came in AFC Championship).
The Bills did some shuffling on their offensive line last week and plan on sticking with those changes on the right side, with Spencer Brown at right tackle and Daryl Williams right guard. Jon Feliciano has cleared concussion protocol and should slide back in to his starting spot at left guard.
Spencer Brown is from Lenox, Iowa… a town of about 1,400 people.
200-300 of those residents are making the 2+ hour drive to Kansas City to watch Brown play on Sunday Night Football.
“It’s just showing small town kids can do it.”#Bills pic.twitter.com/RPztQ8SiXJ
— Jon Scott (@JonScottTV) October 7, 2021
KC’s defense only has seven sacks through four games, tied for 23rd in the league.
Their dynamic duo on the defensive line has been tinkered and dealt with injuries. Frank Clark has played only one game while working through a hamstring injury. Chris Jones has moved to DT and has two sacks while being tied for the team lead with 8 pressures. However, he’s up in the air with a wrist injury. Jarran Reed comes over after five seasons with Seattle and played well.
On the next levels, Sneed leads the team by blitzing 18 times from his CB spot. The three linebackers are next in line, all in double digits.
How the Bills can hold up against the pressure will certainly help turn the tide for Allen against KC’s D.
The mountain of Mahomes
There’s no need to rattle off what makes Patrick Mahomes one of if not the best QBs in the NFL because we all already know.
He’s off to an interesting start this season by doing a few things differently.
First, the mistakes have been more prominent, already throwing four INTs. He threw only 5 in 2019 and 6 in 2020.
The Bills are second in the NFL with seven INTs as a team and lead the league with 11 total turnovers, all of which have come in the past three games.
The other thing Mahomes is doing different is getting the ball out even quicker than he has before. He has hovered around 2.5 seconds each of his three seasons in the league, but now is getting it out around 2.1 seconds and absolutely lighting it up the faster the ball gets out.
And even with the extra mistakes and quicker throws, Mahomes still piling up the main numbers as he always has, tops in the NFL in passing TDs (14), 2nd in passer rating (119.7), 4th in completion percentage (72.3%), and 5th in yards (1,218).
KC’s Dynamic Duo
It’s no secret who Mahomes’ favorite two targets are.
WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce have a combined 54 receptions for 765 yards and 7 TDs.
62.8% of Mahomes passing yards have come from those two.
70 of his 141 pass attempts have been targeted to those two.
Only twice this season has any other pass catcher on the Chiefs seen more than four targets in a game (Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle).
Bottom line, it’s Hill and Kelce as the leads with everyone else the supporting cast.
Of course the Bills know that first hand from the AFC Championship game (Hill: 9 receptions for 172 yards on 11 targets, Kelce: 13 receptions for 118 yards and 2 TDs on 15 targets).
The #Bills have the best defense in the NFL thru 4 games, allowing 216.8 YPG and 11 PPG.
Still, that unit knows KC’s going to get their Sunday night.
It’s an interesting shift in mindset against an elite offense.
“You have to go into their game and limit big plays.” pic.twitter.com/B0fej3AVW7
— Jon Scott (@JonScottTV) October 7, 2021
With Hill also working out of the slot, it may not be easy to just throw Tre’Davious White to shadow him as he does most other top-flight WRs. Taron Johnson may be the other one tasked with covering Hill.
As for Kelce, that may depend greatly on the health of Matt Milano. Even with the Bills linebacker out there, help may also be needed from the back end.
Retooled KC line
The Chiefs completely overhauled their offensive line after last season.
They traded for Orlando Brown from Baltimore to be their left tackle.
Left guard Joe Thuney was brought in from New England, where he was a 2nd team All-Pro in 2019.
The rest is all rookies.
Creed Humphrey was KC’s 2nd round pick and starts at center. Right guard Trey Smith was a 6th round pick out of Tennessee.
Lucas Niang was the Chiefs 3rd round pick in 2020, but opted out last season because of COVID.
Results from this newly assembled group have been mixed through four games. Mahomes has been sacked five times, but pressured on 24.1% of his drop backs. Again, remember he’s getting the ball out quicker than ever in his career.
This is where the Bills retooled DL needs to come up big.
You don’t blitz Mahomes, so all pressure needs to come from the front four.
Sean McDermott’s called for more consistency early this season and this is the moment that group needs to be their best.
Tampa Bay laid the blue print on their Super Bowl win over KC that a pass rush just from the front can be an absolute game-changer.
Let’s see is Brandon Beane’s moves can make the difference for the Bills.
Feature of the Week
One thing I was reminded of over the past few days was how Tyreek Hill mentioned months ago how he was amazed that a defensive lineman nearly chased him down on one of his big plays against the Bills in the AFC Championship game.
That player was 300 pound Justin Zimmer.
Bills Mafia has fallen in love with Zimmer ever since he forced that fumble by Cam Newton late in the win over New England last season.
He has continued to be a regular in the Bills DL rotation this season, making the team out of training camp.
What makes Zimmer’s rise on the roster even more impressive is how he also has been pursuing a masters degree online at the same time.
On the line
KC (-2.5)
O/U: 56.5
**Caesars Sports Book**
Injury Report
BILLS
Questionable: LB Matt Milano (hamstring), DL A.J. Epenesa (foot), RB Taiwan Jones (hamstring)
CHIEFS
Questionable: DL Chris Jones (wrist), CB Charvarius Ward (quad)
Spectrum News 1 Blitz – Week 5
Bills and Chiefs kick-off from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday night at 8:20 p.m. EST.
**Be sure to tune into Spectrum News 1 immediately after the game for “Buffalo End Zone.” Our LIVE postgame show brings you highlights, team reaction, and analysis from Kevin Carroll as well as our Bills beat reporter Jon Scott and WGR 550 Bills sideline reporter Sal Capaccio from Kansas City.**
