ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — All the good wins, bad losses and everything in between really means nothing when it comes to this Sunday’s game.
A win by the Bills, and they reclaim first place in the AFC East with two games to go.
A loss, and you can kiss the division goodbye and pray for Santa to save one more gift over the next two weeks to push the Bills into the playoffs amongst a very crowded AFC.
This is the chance, without the weather getting in the way, for this team to show that they really are the new sheriff in town rather than a one year wonder.
Even with where things currently stand with player availability (we’ll get to that soon), I believe the Bills are the more talented team.
But that’s been the story of their season.
Coulda.
Woulda.
Shoulda.
Moments of stink, stank stunk.
Still, Allen and the elves can right those wrongs and continue to shape a new chapter in this division’s history by getting the job done Sunday in Foxborough.
Let’s dive into the hap-hap-happiest game preview since Bing Crosby tap danced with…
Well, you know the rest.
The Nightmare Before Christmas
The Bills battle with COVID-19 ramped up this past week, with nine players and two coaches landing on the Reserve/COVID list.
The two hardest hit position groups heading into the weekend are wide receiver and offensive line.
With it being reported both Cole Beasley and Davis are unvaccinated, neither will be available to play Sunday against the Patriots.
That leaves Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, Isaiah McKenzie, Marquez Stevenson and Jake Kumerow as the options on the active roster.
Isaiah Hodgins and Tanner Gentry could be elevated from the practice squad.
The OL is a tougher scenario.
Dion Dawkins and/or Jon Feliciano as well as even Ford could come off the COVID list in time to play against New England.
If not, it will be another jumbled up group.
If things stay as they currently do with Dawkins, Feliciano, and Ford on COVID list, here’s a guess at the #Bills OL for Sunday:
LT Spencer Brown
LG Ike Boettger
C Mitch Morse
RG Ryan Bates
RT Daryl WilliamsOther option could be Williams RG and Tommy Doyle at RT.
Not great.
— Jon Scott (@JonScottTV) December 24, 2021
My best guess is we see the exact group from a week ago on the left side and at center, with either a combo of Ryan Bates + Daryl Williams or Williams + Tommy Doyle on the right side. Bobby Hart also could be elevated from the practice squad to play tackle.
The Gift of Josh Allen
As rough as everything around Josh Allen may be heading into this game, he still can provide the Christmas miracle.
Even in the ridiculous windy weather conditions we saw in the first meeting between these two, Allen was able to throw the ball relatively effectively.
I maintain, even as the Patriots enter with the 3rd best passing defense in the NFL (185.1 pass yards per game), the Bills throwing the ball is their best recipe for offensive success.
Ramp up the targets for Diggs and combat the Pats pass rush by utilizing Dawson Knox and Isaiah McKenzie underneath.
Oh, and let’s see more of a concerted effort to get Allen running like we saw in the second half against Tampa Bay. Allen historically hasn’t used his legs much against New England, but it has continued to prove to be one of his and the Bills best weapons.
Run, Run Devin?
Of course, the numbers suggest running the ball on the Patriots is the thing to do.
New England enters 24th in the league by averaging 122.4 rushing yards per game.
The Bills committed to the run game last week more than we’ve seen this season, especially individually.
Devin Singletary had a career-high 22 carries against the Panthers, the most carries a Bills back has seen since LeSean McCoy had 26 week 10 of the 2018 regular season.
Singletary’s 633 rushing yards may be 26th in the NFL, but he’s up to ninth in yards per attempt at 4.72.
With Zack Moss inactive once again last week, maybe the time has come for Singletary to take the lead back role himself and start to add to his 134 carries (27th in the NFL).
He ran for 36 yards on 10 carries in the first game against the Patriots.
Wrapping the Tackling
The Bills performance against the Patriots run game was the biggest talking point following the first matchup.
New England ripped off 222 yards on the ground on 46 attempts.
While those numbers pop, the ones that really highlight the issues are the 17 missed tackles by the Bills defense in that game that led to 163 rushing yards after contact by the Pats.
Safety Jordan Poyer acknowledged it was the worst tackling they’ve had as a team all season.
Damien Harris had 76 of his 111 rushing yards after contact in the first game. Rhamondre Stevenson had seven broken tackles himself, resulting in 59 of his 78 rushing yards after contact. Even Brandon Bolden had 16 of his 28 rushing yards after contact.
Stevenson’s already been ruled out, so that should help.
Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds noted that the best way to fix that is work to get as many defenders to the ball carrier to avoid those 1-on-1 situations.
Edmunds added he feels it’s important and necessary for the Bills defense to be physical and fly around early to set the tone.
Jingle Jones
On the flip side of what the Patriots did running the ball in the first game was what they didn’t do throwing it.
Mac Jones had just three pass attempts, completing two for 19 yards.
Don’t expect that to happen again Sunday.
The book on Jones is he is accurate, but doesn’t really throw the ball down the field.
The numbers reflect that, as he ranks 3rd in the NFL with a completion percentage of 69%.
His average pass length is 7.84 yards, tied for 17th in the league, with an average length per completion of 5.67 yards, which is 19th.
Now, much to the dismay of Bills Mafia, I did point out during the Patriots game last Saturday night that Jones had a perfect deep shot that was dropped, proving he is capable of making such throws.
He just doesn’t do it often because that’s not how New England’s offense operates.
Whatever the plan for Jones is against the Bills, he’ll try to execute it without Nelson Agholor and possibly also Kendrick Bourne, who remains on the COVID list.
Micah Hyde made it a point Thursday to say how important the pass rush would be, effecting Jones and forcing him either off his spot or to make decisions quicker.
That group answered the call last Sunday after inconsistent play much of this season.
While the Bills have blitzed more of late, the best plan is to get pressure with the front four.
Could Boogie Basham be part of that?
I caught up with the 2nd round pick this week for his thoughts on his rookie season.
On the Line
Bills (+2.5)
O/U: 43.5
**Caesars Sports Book**
Injury Report
BILLS
Questionable: DT Star Lotulelei (personal)
PATRIOTS
Out: WR Nelson Agholor (Concussion), S Joshuah Bledsoe (Calf), RB Rhamondre Stevenson (COVID)
Questionable: C David Andrews (Shoulder), DL Christian Barmore (Knee), LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (Ribs/Ankle), RB Brandon Bolden (Knee), K Nick Folk (Left Knee), RB Damien Harris (Hamstring), WR N’Keal Harry (Hip), S Adrian Phillips (Knee)
Prediction
Bills win 24-14
I made this call before the Friday COVID additions, but going to stick with it because the Bills still have Josh Allen and weapons around him and a defense that is coming in with a serious chip on their shoulder. Allen rises to the occasion and accounts for all three TDs, two through the air and one on the ground. New England still finds success running the ball, but not nearly to the extent of the first matchup. Mac Jones can’t do enough to dig out of an early hole and the Bills bypass the Pats atop the AFC East standings with two weeks to go in the regular season.
Make sure to tune into Spectrum News 1 immediately after the game for “Buffalo End Zone.” Our LIVE postgame show brings you highlights, team reaction and analysis. Join Andy Young in studio as well as Jon Scott and Bills radio sideline reporter and WGR 550’s Sal Capaccio from inside Gillette Stadium as they dive into everything that transpired between the Bills and Patriots. Once again, “Buffalo End Zone” live once the game ends.
