Box Office Weekend Recap: Minions Stumble, Spider-Man Hype Takes Over

Winners, losers, and what is coming to a theater near you

The box office weekend that closed out America’s 250th birthday celebration did not go the way Hollywood expected. “Minions & Monsters” opened at number one, but its debut fell far short of studio projections, while a low-budget patriotic drama and a wounded superhero sequel told two very different stories about what audiences want right now. Add in a Spider-Man sequel that is breaking presale records more than three weeks before it even opens, and this box office weekend offers a clear look at where moviegoing stands as summer 2026 hits its stride.

Box Office Weekend Winners And Losers, July 3 To July 5

Every box office weekend has a headline number, and this one belongs to Illumination and Universal. “Minions & Monsters” led all films, but the win came with an asterisk that industry watchers are still trying to explain.

The Loser: Minions & Monsters Falls Short

“Minions & Monsters,” the seventh film in the “Despicable Me” universe, pulled in an estimated $36.4 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday frame and $61.4 million since its Wednesday debut, according to Rotten Tomatoes’ box office desk. That is a franchise-low result, coming in below even the original 2010 “Despicable Me,” which opened to $56.3 million and reached $72 million in its first five days.

Heading into the weekend, the studio had hoped for something closer to $80 million over five days, and the film opened well behind those projections despite playing in 4,243 locations across North America. Critics were not the problem. “Minions & Monsters” earned the best reviews of the entire franchise, landing a Certified Fresh 91 percent on the Tomatometer, well above the original film’s 80 percent.

So what happened? Box office analysts point to a few factors. Independence Day fell on a Saturday this year, historically the busiest day of the week for moviegoing, which likely pulled some families toward barbecues and fireworks instead of theaters. Rentrack data shows the holiday typically generates $150 million to $200 million industry-wide, but this year’s total came in around $121 million. Competition from “Toy Story 5,” still going strong in its second weekend, and general fatigue with sequel-heavy family fare likely played a role too.

The Bigger Loser: Supergirl’s Brutal Collapse

If “Minions & Monsters” had a rough weekend, “Supergirl” had a disaster. Warner Bros.’ DC adaptation fell 77 percent in its second weekend, pulling in just $8.6 million from 3,602 screens, below the studio’s own low-end Sunday estimate. After opening to $37.1 million, the film has now earned $57.4 million domestically and $99.5 million worldwide.

The steep drop underscores a challenge facing the superhero genre right now, especially when the story centers on a character who is not a household name the way Superman or Spider-Man are. Superhero movies are not dead, but audiences appear to be far more selective about which ones earn a trip to the theater.

The Real Winner: Young Washington

The weekend’s genuine surprise came from Angel Studios. “Young Washington,” a faith-based historical drama about George Washington’s years before the Revolutionary War, opened in third place with $19.3 million from 2,700 theaters, timed deliberately to the nation’s 250th anniversary. The film earned an “A” grade on CinemaScore even though critics were far cooler, giving it just 57 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.

That gap between audience grade and critic score is a familiar pattern for Angel Studios, the company behind “Sound of Freedom.” Their films tend to connect strongly with a specific, motivated audience even when mainstream critics do not fully embrace them, and “Young Washington” followed that script almost exactly.

Still Standing: Toy Story 5

Pixar’s “Toy Story 5” held onto a strong number two spot with $31.0 million, pushing its domestic total to $366.3 million. That is a steep second-weekend drop by Pixar standards, but the film’s strong reviews and A CinemaScore suggest it should keep drawing families well into July, even as new releases start crowding the marketplace.

Is The Spider-Man Hype Real?

No box office weekend discussion this month is complete without addressing the elephant swinging through midtown Manhattan. “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” starring Tom Holland and directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, does not open until July 31. But the advance numbers are already making headlines, and the question on everyone’s mind is simple: is the hype real, or is this just another round of inflated tracking talk?

The evidence so far says the hype is real. When tickets went on sale in June, the film sold more tickets in the United States in a single day than any movie in the past five years, falling short only of “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” which set that bar back in 2021. Deadline reported the film posted the best first-day domestic presales in five years, and industry insiders say those numbers already beat Disney and Marvel’s “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness,” which opened to $187.4 million in 2022.

Fandango has confirmed the film became the ticketing platform’s biggest first-day pre-seller of 2026, surpassing “The Odyssey,” “Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu,” and “Project Hail Mary.” Reports now put advance bookings at roughly $40 million, with some trackers projecting a domestic opening weekend north of $210 million, which would rank as the fourth-biggest domestic debut of all time, ahead of “Star Wars: The Force Awakens.”

Cretton himself has leaned into the moment. Asked whether this could be Holland’s final outing as Peter Parker, the director told Deadline, “Everyone should go to this as if it’s the last Spider-Man.”

There is context worth mentioning here too. The contrast with “Supergirl” could not be sharper. While Spider-Man tracking climbs toward a possible $250 million opening, Supergirl spent weeks watching its own forecasts shrink in the opposite direction. The takeaway from box office analysts is not that audiences have soured on superheroes altogether. It is that moviegoers are choosing carefully, still willing to show up in force for characters they genuinely love.

Should moviegoers trust the tracking? Presale numbers are not a guarantee. Films have overperformed on early buzz and underdelivered before, and Spider-Man is also missing IMAX screens this time around since Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” has locked those up. But between the record ticket sales, the built-in audience from “No Way Home,” and the return of Zendaya, Mark Ruffalo, and Sadie Sink, this box office weekend’s biggest story might actually be a movie that has not even opened yet.

What To Expect Next Box Office Weekend

Two new wide releases hit theaters July 10, and they could not be more different from each other.

Moana’s Tracking Keeps Sliding

Disney’s live-action “Moana,” starring Dwayne Johnson as Maui and newcomer Catherine Laga’aia in the title role, was once projected to open as high as $85 million to $105 million domestically. Those numbers have since collapsed. The latest tracking from Global Box Office puts the opening weekend forecast at just $45 million to $60 million, a steep drop for a film reportedly budgeted around $200 million.

Analysts point to a simple problem: the original animated “Moana” is only ten years old, meaning the built-in nostalgia that powered hits like “The Little Mermaid” and “Aladdin” may not be there yet. Competition from “Toy Story 5” and “Minions & Monsters” for the same family audience is not helping either.

Evil Dead Burn Brings Horror Back

The horror franchise “Evil Dead” returns with “Evil Dead Burn,” the first entry to hit theaters since 2023’s “Evil Dead Rise,” which opened to $24.5 million and topped out at $67.2 million. 2026 has been a strong year for original horror, with films like “Backrooms” and “Obsession” performing well above expectations, giving this new entry a favorable environment even without a first-time director attached this time.

Looking Ahead: The Rest Of July

The industry is not worried about the recent soft openings. Domestic box office receipts are running roughly 13 percent ahead of 2025, and the summer stretch from May through July 5 stands at $2.3 billion, about 12 percent ahead of the same period last year.

The next few weeks will test that momentum directly. Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” arrives July 17 carrying its own record-setting presale buzz, followed two weeks later by “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” on July 31. Between those two releases, this box office weekend’s story of underwhelming debuts could look like a brief pause rather than a trend.

For readers in the Mohawk Valley planning a summer movie night, the message is straightforward. The bigger films are still coming, and if the presale numbers hold up, late July could bring the biggest weekend of the year. Keep checking back with the Utica Phoenix for updates as ticket sales roll in and the picture becomes clearer.